Ready Or Not

Confirmation, if it was necessary, came last week at a Virtual Sessions event sponsored by the Express News Group: The South Fork is in the midst of a transformation. It might have been coming regardless, but the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the natural pace of evolution, supercharged it. In the span of a few months, change is rapidly occurring, and it’s not slowing down.

The nature of the change is complicated. But one part is simple: Real estate professionals who took part in the panel last week confirmed what any observant local resident suspected — people are buying houses at a frantic clip, and they plan to use them as more than simple summer retreats. A region that started as a sleepy rural outpost, then became an interesting place to visit, then to rent, then to own a second home, is now coming full circle: “Tumbleweed Tuesday,” the traditional day after Labor Day when it seemed the streets were all but empty, could be a quaint memory after 2020.

If the question of whether change is here is settled, it brings an avalanche of new questions about how this “New Hamptons” will differ from the most recent edition, how the challenges that already existed will be exacerbated, whether there are workable strategies to adapt, and what happens if they can’t be enacted fast enough to keep up.

The real estate professionals assembled for the virtual panel to discuss the current real estate market on the South Fork — which is unprecedented, they all agreed — drew some comparison to post-9/11 and the crowd who fled the city for what felt like a safe haven, even temporarily. But many discovered a new home. Sharon Stern of Sotheby’s pointed out that the special appeal that feeds the region’s success can be seductive: “It’s a place where people can function remotely … people love being here, they couldn’t be here except for weekends before, and now they really can enjoy their homes and they value them even more.”

Corcoran’s Mala Sander agreed: “I think people are finding that the school system is great, the agricultural nature of our community, the farm-to-table nature, the beaches, the fresh air, all of those things, people find it very hard to leave after a while. And now with offices maybe closing and with less and less reason to not work from home, people kind of say, okay, why am I going back?” After 9/11, she noted, the South Fork “became a more robust, more rounded-out community,” and the influx of new residents seeking a safe place from COVID-19 might likewise infuse some fresh blood.

Attorney Adam Miller noted that it could bring an injection of new life — into the local economy, as more young, prosperous men and women bring their entrepreneurial skills east, and possibly into local government, as those same people begin taking both interest and leadership roles in schools, villages and towns.

Of course, that prompts a question: Will these transplants, many of them longtime city dwellers, share a vision of East End life that jibes with existing residents’ priorities? Will a new perspective be beneficial in the long run? Or will these new pressures begin to chip away at the very features that made the region so appealing in the first place?

The list of concerns is not new, but every single issue could be worsened by a larger year-round population (or even a greater number of people spending more than half their time in houses that used to be filled for only a few months a year). It’ll mean more septic flow at a time when the bays are already being poisoned at an alarming rate. Roads, already a source of great friction, will buckle with new traffic. Affordable housing, already scarce, will begin to evaporate entirely. Schools, which had largely seen enrollment level off or even begin to fall, could suddenly be bursting at the seams. Even something as simple as cellphone service and Wi-Fi will be tested.

A pessimist might say these few months, and the next year or two ahead, might well undo all the decades’ worth of effort to head off overdevelopment in the region. But there is another side to the coin.

Unlike some resort areas, this one is unique: It’s more like a high-end enclave that goes into overdrive for four months a year, providing fine dining, recreational options and a social calendar. But those elements can be appealing year round. There could well be a customer base here now, throughout the calendar, that can truly support a local business community in a much more consistent way.

Ready or not, evolution has arrived. The hard work has to begin, quickly, to brace for the many changes, positive and negative, that will result. Wear a mask, invite new ideas — and get to work.