A Hard Swing

A few weeks ago, on its website, The Washington Post had a little fun with a most serious matter, converting gerrymandered new congressional districts all over the country, resulting from the 2020 Census, into digitally playable holes of miniature golf. Actually, “playable” is probably the wrong word, as some of the district lines were too ridiculously elongated and convoluted to allow reasonable angles.

There’s a new entry: The 1st Congressional District, which includes the East End of Long Island, and now stretches like a shoehorn along the north shore all the way to Oyster Bay. Carved out by the State Legislature, which is heavily Democratically controlled, it drains the red from a deeply purple voting bloc, leaving the district stretching all the way to Nassau County, leaning around neighbors to get there.

Gerrymandering is a sin committed by both parties at the state level when they have a chance. Both sides decry it, but neither is willing to be the first to set aside political advantage in favor of a less partisan drawing of lines, at the risk of losing political ground. It’s technically not illegal in many cases, though the latest maps in New York State, which could eliminate three Republican seats in Congress, could face a challenge based on the State Constitution’s limits on how much advantage can be taken, considering how extreme they really are.

Ironically, the state tried a new system to limit gerrymandering this time around, but the Democrats’ supermajority in Albany gave one side no real motivation, knowing deadlock meant a sure-fire victory.

Before left-leaning residents east of the Shinnecock Canal start waving joyous blue flags of victory, it’s worth pointing out that these are the very maneuvers that are causing many people to lose faith in democracy. Whichever side wins, there are voters who will lose, whose votes will become a little less important, and confidence in the process erodes a little more.

Instead of swinging back and forth, as the 1st District has for decades, it’s much more likely to be locked in place. The result will be a much less nuanced representative, most likely from closer to the fringes. Lee Zeldin — whose decision to make a quixotic run for governor starts to make more sense now, assuming he saw the writing on the redistricting wall — has been a bad representative of his district because he has flatly ignored the opinions of a great many of his constituents, knowing that he currently had enough populist votes to lock up reelection without them.

There will be no reason for a Democratic candidate to try to find a middle road, either. The district is a complicated place with a mix of opinions, split equally and deeply as the nation, but its voice in Washington, D.C., could end up being strongly progressive, thrilling some but upsetting many.

As a Democratic lock, in other words, the pendulum likely will swing the other way now, which might feel like a cause for celebration on the left. But what we really need is no pendulum at all.